The wait is over – Cheltenham 2008 is upon us

11/03/2008 by admin.

My advice for betting at Cheltenham is keep it simple and don’t just get tempted by big prices and has a chance.  In recent years for most races it tends to be the top 6 in the betting that win.  Markets are change very near to off.   Keep your stakes small at the start of the festival until you get confidence in the grounds conditions and your selections.  Below I have listed out my early thoughts on the races but these will change as the markets develop.

Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novice Hurdle

There could be as many as 23 runners going to post. History suggests though that most in field can’t win. If we remove all horse that has not won last time out then the number of contenders is reduced to a manageable size.

The short list now stands at:-

Captain Cee Dee Age: 7 Scratch as 7 year olds can be opposed in this race
Sentry Duty Age: 6 French bred over 4 years bad record

Pasco Age: 5
Pigeon Island Age: 5
Rippling Ring Age: 5

Muirhead Age: 5 Irish bred
Binocular Age: 4 French bred 4 year olds good record

Looking at the market I go for Binocular right now but any of the bottom five if they are in the top of the market would have a chance.

Selection: Binocular ½ Each way 9/1 Paddy Power ¼ 4 places

IRISH INDEPENDENT ARKLE CHALLENGE TROPHY CHASE GRADE 1 (CLASS 1)

Scratch horses that have not finished 1st or 2rd in their last outings.

The short list now stands at:-

Leslingtaylor
Orpen Wide
Ring the Boss
Tidal Bay

My shortlist:

Noland
Thyne Again
Kruguyrova

Selection: Kruguyrova ½ point each way 14/1 Blue Square

SMURFIT KAPPA CHAMPION HURDLE CHALLENGE TROPHY GRADE 1 (CLASS 1) (4yo+)

Using the same process the short list becomes:

Afsoun
Catch Me
Katchit
Osana
Sizing Europe

I can’t see past Sizing Europe but he not a play for at 5/2 with Ladbrokes. I am trading him a little. There are others note on my short list that I think have that specialist Cheltenham magic Sublimity and Ebaziyan.

Selection: ¼ point Sublimity 6/1 each way and ¼ point each way Ebaziyan 40/1

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE GRADE 3 (CLASS 1)

Very short list for this one.

Fundamentalist
An Accordion
King Harald

Selection: King Harald 11/1 0.5 each way Paddy Power 4 places

BGC HANDICAP CHASE (CROSS COUNTRY CHASE) (CLASS 2) (5yo+)

For me I can’t see past Heads on the ground. I am therefore going to oppose the favouirte Wonder Kid.

Selection: 1 point lay Wonder Kid 5/2

FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED RACE) (CLASS 1)

A massive field and therefore I can’t back the favourite at 11/4. So I am going to go for 2 at a price.

Selections: ¼ each way Hypnotic Vibes 50/1 Boyles 5 places and ¼ point each way Western point 50/1 Boyles 50/1 5 places

My Portfolio profit for the day: -£93.37
My Portfolio profit for the month: -£3456.41
My Portfolio profit for the year: £17359.62

Wilkinson profit for the day: -£93.37
Wilkinson profit for the month (day 23): £1694.59
Wilkinson profit for the year: £13552.38

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