07/03/2007 by ramps.

Don’t miss out on great Cheltenham Concessions

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07/03/2007 by ramps.

I decided to have a bit of late start in day 1 of the holiday.  I finally got really going at around 8.30am.   First task was to start working on the racing database and getting all the outstanding betfair data into the database.  Once this was complete I concentrated on getting the Brimardon, Towerform, Adrian Masey and Flatstats data that I was missing.  This is now pretty much completed.

At 9am it was time to see whether there a Melchior bet.  There was today so the excitement began early knowing that I had a minimum of 10 points liability.  Whilst I was getting the data updated I had a few breaks to work on myspace.  This is working well and is starting to yield a reasonable amount of traffic so I am very pleased by it so far.

At 11am it was time to check the classic 2 line.  2 selections so the liability increased by another 4 points.   At 11.30 I realised my phone had no signal, fortunately there was no bet collection max bet so it didn’t matter too much.

At 12 noon I placed the 1 tbc main selection taking my liability now to 16 points.  Shortly afterwards came confirmation that there was indeed a personal info maximum bet taking the liability to 28 points.  I knew now that this was going to be a large betting day.

At 12.30 the tbc lays arrived all 3 of them.   In addition there were 2 Brimardon lays as well.  This was clearly a busy day if interest for me.

I was happy with my performance and patience in getting good lay prices.   Unfortunately the personal info max bet didn’t win and thus resulted in a loss of around 4 points for a heavy investment day which was disappointing.   A long winning run on this service is surely just around the corner.

Tomorrow will be quietier which just one meeting surviving the weather.  Hopefully this will give me sometime to start my long overdue review of the bookmakers and how to make the best out of the concessions when betting/trading and laying.   It will become clearer when I explain.   There are numerous ways with a little bit of clear thinking you can yield extra profit from your existing systems or even new low risk systems.

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07/03/2007 by ramps.

The build up to  Cheltenham Gold Cup has revolved, almost exclusively, around one horse Paul Nicholls’ brilliant Kauto Star (6/4). Well what camp are you in?

Camp A: He’s the best horse in the race by a country mile and odds against looks generous given he is so far ahead of his rivals on the form book or

Camp B: He fell on his only previous start at Cheltenham, has made serious errors on his last two starts and has yet to prove he has the necessary stamina for the three and a quarter mile trip.

The weather forecasters suggests that the beginning of March will continue to see unsettled weather and there is always the possibility of connections switching to the Queen Mother Champion Chase if the race looks like being run in a bog, but there is only one Gold Cup and I would be amazed if Kauto Star did not take up the Gold Cup option. Paul Nicholls at a recent press day was quick too point out how the horse is, fundamentally, a good jumper of a fence prone only to a lack of concentration. His Haydock Park success in the Betfair Chase earlier in the campaign was as good a performance as I have ever witnessed from a Chaser, and his subsequent Grade 1 successes in the Tingle Creek and the King George marked him down as a Champion in waiting.   I have been advised it could even snow next week at Cheltenham.

That said Chasing greats such as Pendil and Wayward Lad failed to land the Gold Cup and God alone knows how Desert Orchard landed the most prestigious prize in jump racing. Trainer Paul Nicholls insists that the fences at Cheltenham are not as fierce as they once were, and that may well be the case, but will he get away with a similar mistake to the ones that blighted his Kempton and Newbury (Aon Chase) successes if the petrol gauge is on its last bar?

Granted good ground the main rival to Kauto Star must have been the Gold Cup winner of 2006 War Of Attrition but with his unfortunate injury this danger will not be here this year.

Exotic Dancer (5/1) has been one of the stars of the season, having landed three competitive events, all at Cheltenham, so far this term. The only horses to have lowered the colours of Jonjo O’Neill’s charge in five starts this season are the enigmatic Turpin Green in an unsatisfactory three-runner Carlisle event, and Kauto Star in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. He will have to improve again to make the frame, but you get the impression his progression has surprised even Jonjo and Barry Simpson (owner Sir Robert Ogden’s racing manager), but he will have to put up a career best to reach the three.  I am aware that connections of Exotic Dancer are extremely confident at 5/1 each way bet to nothing maybe?

State Of Play (10/1) is the other potential improver in the race, having not been seen on the track since landing the Hennessy at Newbury back in November. Much has been written about the well-being of the Evan Williams horses in recent weeks, but the Welsh handler is sure to have the horse at concert pitch for the race, if there is nothing ailing his string. It is only two starts ago that he was landing an Aintree handicap off 128, but he made the transition to leading handicapper effectively at the Berkshire track. Can he make the switch to Gold Cup winner as seamlessly?  In my opinion no.

The Gold Cup remains the most prestigious prize in jump racing (the Grand National remains the greatest race). At the beginning of this preview I asked if you were for or against the jolly old favourite Kauto Star. Have you decided yet? Only a week and 2 days to go.

With Kauto Star likely to dominate the market if you are in Camp B then there are plenty of angles for value.  Personally I am in Camp A and expect to be making a large bet on the day for Kauto Star.  If I was in Camp B then I be looking at My Will (16/1) or Kingscliff (40/1).  The listener is sure to make this race a true test of stamina.

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