January blues

17/01/2007 by ramps.

October seems a distant memory when the winners were flowing and the confidence was high.  On a positive note this has given me the motive to work harder and as a result I have finally finished my trading model for football based on historical betfair data.   I have been trialling for a while now in secret and will add it to my portfolio on Saturday.   I hope soon to have similar models ready for both tennis and golf.  What the systems does is given a predefined list of values that I can setup and leave in the system.   I am a adrehelin junky so I need this.  I don’t have the reactions of some of the other traders on here and therefore my edge is the fact that I have written a program to predict, simulate the most probable activity and thus define the most profitable bands to trade.   I will try to give a detailed commentary of how it works for real on this blog.

It was another disappointing day for the systems that got involved yesterday.  Essentially I have 1 system performing terribly, most of the rest are slightly down on the month and only 2 are in profit.  The disappointing thing is that the 1 system that is doing most of the damanage has not been performing since the end of October.   It is long overdue a correction.  (winning run)  In fact looking back further it has been treading water for around 8 months.   This is a concerning amount of time.  The calendar years stats for are impressive though still.    A return to form will be very welcome.

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