04/01/2007 by ramps.

I forgot I did go through the cards this morning.   Nothing too exciting but I think it might be worth siding with the Luder against An Acordian.   Looks as if you may get as much as 11/4 in what appears to be a 2 horse race.  Definitely looks the value to me.

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04/01/2007 by ramps.

My body is still adjusting to trauma of having to got to work after a long break for me.  On the betting front it was another disappointing day as it was another red day.  So far in 2007 I have one winning day and two losing days.  I am currently 3.65 points down for the year.  There is a very long way to go though and confidence remains moderately high.

The good news is that I think I have found some interesting patterns in the betfair data.  I have mapped this against the different rating systems I have at my disposal.  For example I have a graph that shows me that if I back the top rated adrian massey horses in a paritcular type of race that x percent of the time it will reduce in price to y percent in running.   The next step is to trial this hopefully this weekend.   The plan will be select 4 races and trade them by the preset values.  Once the profit target of £100 is acheived then to stop.  If I can achieve this for 12 consective weeks then I think I will have pretty much proved the system.

The next stage is then create excel macros for bet angel pro and back the top two rated with an algorithm that takes into account how far the race has let to go and maximise the possiblity of making profit from both whilst also taking into account that maybe one selection will run to form and therefore may have to use this selection to equalise the loss on the other selection.  This is far more complex but I think we yield very high strike ratio’s.   It is amazing how many horses tarde shorter in running that their off price.   The numerical grouping affect and the fact that many people are trading in running in delayed pictures or on emotions means that solving this more complex problem could be very rewarding in my opinion.   If there is one thing I have learnt in the last 2 years is that you should not trade/bet/lay unless you are doing it is to a strict strategy.  If you are not then in long run you will come unstuck.   I still make those mistakes occasionally some I win and some a I lose but either way I mentally discpline myself.

I wince everytime I see somebody trading based on an opinion or a view that read on a blog or in a forum without actually checking it out for themselves and testing it.   My advice is do your homework.  Paper trade or trade at £2 stakes.   Prove the strategy over a period of time.  Document mistakes and improve your strategy.   Daily account.  Discuss with trusted friends.  The latter I find difficult as most think I am nuts and maybe they are right.  I do listen to what they say and then I check my stats.   Yes, I rely very heavily on the numerical grouping and the chaos theory but so do many other investments.

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