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December 2006
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Archive for December 2006

Reflecting on 2006

I was determined in 2006 to learn from the mistakes of 2005.   To a degree I did but I did make a handful of similar mistakes which cost me a lot of money.   I have made a decent profit this year but not enough to say that I have graduated to becoming a pro.   Around the middle of the year it looks as if I would but 3 bad months after 2 moderate months meant the year dropped off.

On a positive note I have managed my time extremely affectively. This has allowed me to increase my portfolio of systems without increasing the amount of time racing takes.  I allow myself a maximum of 15 minutes a day in premium time.  I have learnt to enjoy the accounting side of the betting.  The daily accounts keep me honest and cheer me up when I had a losing day and level me out when I have had a good day. 

I have a massive and challenging project at work that should keep me busy for most of the year assuming they decide not to get rid of me which is a possibility with new owners.  If this happened then I would more than likely go consulting and do the gambling full time.   I do really love my job at lmn and now that I have had a week off and relaxed I am ready to make things happen in 2007.

I have many personal objectives for 2007 these include:-

Increasing my fitness and losing some weight again
Working on my social skills
Working on buying properly in the buy to let market
Working on increasing the commission I receive from affiliates schemes

Instead of a 2 year plan that I normally make I have made a 1 year plan.   The plan is to reach financial freedom by the end of the year.  By this I mean my passive income is greater than my expenses.  Then I can truly make the decision on what to do next.

It is going to be fantastic year.  It is going to be very stressful and I am going to hard work longer and harder.

Thanks for all the support and keep checking back for updates on my progress in 2007.

Wishing you all a happy new year

A small update to say I wish you all happy and profitable new year.  Have been working hard on many fronts and finalising my new years resolutions and plans.   November and December have been sobering months.  I wish be publishing my plans over the next few days and will be continuing the blog into the new year.

The weather sums it up

Well December is following a similar trend to Novemver with more lows than highs.   As I look out from the office into the fog I wonder when things will turn my way.  I note that there are many reports that I am not the only one struggling at the minute but on the other hand I know plenty of people who are doing well.

At worst I have 2 days to go at work this year.  At best I manage to get tomorrow off.  Solve a few outstanding issues yesterday so was pleased with that.  Today should be less stressful but you never know what is around the corner.  Spurs managed a lucky win last night so their cup run continues.   Surely some silverware for the yids this season.   No doubt the squad will be strengthened in Janaury.

A long day

Yesterday was a long day commencing at 6am and finished at around 11pm.   In the end I got most of what I wanted done so in some respects it was a successful day.  Made a modest profit on the horses as well.   I am still very much looking forward to the christmas period when I let my skills shine.  I am hopeful of a strong finish to december to complete a successful year of gambling and trading.

Looking forward to christmas week

I am really looking forward to having some time off.  Work is extremely frustrating and a little stressful.  I really need to recharge my batteries.   I will do this with a mixture of trading, working on my racing database and most importantly spending time with my family.  To be honest they have been a couple of flash points at work where I have thought lets go all in and just focus 100% on the trading and gambling.   The reason I don’t is that is not me.   I am not a Warren Buffer who puts all eggs in one basket and looks after that basket.  I understand the concept but prefer to go down a more traditional line of a portfolio of investments.  I have to do what I more comfortable with.   

My goal next year is clear the mortgage.  The worst cast scenerio is I lose all the money I have made in the last 2 years on gambling and I won’t pay the mortgage off.  The best case scenerio is I will pay the mortgage off before the end of the year.   One thing for sure it is going to be an interesting adventure.

Some lessons I need to think about next year.   The horse does not know what price it is.   The market is often wrong when concerning drifters or steamers when laying.  Losing runs are not only expected but totally acceptable.  Managing cash flow to minimise deposit time when in the betting zone can save valuable time and increase the chance of getting all the money on at the price wanted.
Missing an opportunity is not a problem as their will be plenty more.  Remember laying at odds against is the similar to betting on odds on.  Take a view and still with that view. That will do for now.

Me again

Sorry for the lack of posts but working has been really hectic and I am also now a little under the weather.  It has been a high turn over period for me on the horses which has resulted in about 1k of profit in the last week.   A profit is good but disappointing all the same as just had far too many seconds and too many high price lays winning.    I am still very happy with my portfolio approach though as a couple of times when it has looked like I am going to had a bad day one of the system produces a great result to rescue the day.   E.g. on Thursday Brimardon smashed in 21 points profit day and then on Saturday the bet collection deliver a 14/1 (16.8 points)

I was hoping to have a short week this week and this still may happen depending on the auditors at work.  If not at least I will be off next week which will be cool.   I am going to see my parents at the weekend.

Over the christmas period I hope to get quite a bit of work done on my racing database and find a quicker way to publish it as this is consuming far too much time.

The monday report

A fairly good day at work.  Not too many meetings and plenty of time to get my head down and get stuff achieved.   As for the gambling it started really well but then faded away.  Brimardon provided a nice winner in the first at Plumpton with Classic Dream gambled in from 5/1 to 5/2 second favourite. 

This was swiftly followed up but a winning lay on Aviation.   An amazing fall by this horse but sometimes you just get lucky.  The second race at Plumpton looked as it would provide a second winner for Brimardon as Afrad looks the winner for the majority of the race but in the end was well beaten.  I was looking to dutch corrib lad and dorlans bay in 1.20 Ayr but I decided against it at the very last second which saved me a few quid.

Next it was a switched to the all weather at Kempton where I laid Scarlet Hall at 2.1.  Was a bit fortunate again with this one with the outsider staying on to give me another successful lay.  That was 2 out 2 for the the bet collection laying service.  I was looking to dutch in the 1.45 at Plumpton but the winning favourite was too short to make this a viable option.

That was pretty much it for the day I missed a few opportunities and I lost in 2.15 plumpton were Zimbabwe proved to be the best swimmer.  The main line bet collection could only managed a 4th so out of the frame again.  There were other opportunities to make money but only if I was full time.

The evening provided a few minutes trading on the Aston Villa game which I sneaked a few quid using bet angel pro.

I have a very busy day at work today so other than my subscription services I won’t be getting involved in anything.  I am really looking forward to the weekend when I get to have a good old trading session with bet angel pro.  My edge on the horses is the statistics that I have.  I am also looking forwards to the Christmas period where I have 10 days off which hopefully this year will allow me to get a lot of work done on my racing database.  Last year was a disaster as I didn’t get much time off despite being on holiday due to work commitments.   In fact I still have 3 days of holiday to use up so I may increase my holiday to 13 days.

Weekend update

Saturday was a very busy for me.  Christmas shopping in the morning and then a manic few hours gambling.  The evening was one of drinking madly and dancing even more madly.  Had a fabulous day and evening. 

These are the bets I did on Saturday.   12.10 Market Rasen Lesingtaylor win 13/8 VC * 5 laid 2.4 pre-event. Selection won :)

12.20 Cheltenham 2pts win Katchit at 9/4 won plus backed it another 2pts at 9/4 laid 3.0

12.35 Southwell back Jazrawy 1pt each way 8/1

1.00 Navan Ducthed Gripitandtipit and Union Gap

1.15 Market Rasen Back Le Millenaire 5/1 and laid at 4.8

1.15 Market Rasen 1pt lay Ever special 2.32

1.50 Market Rasen 1pt win unamed second favourite, co second fav won 4/1

1.50 Market Rasen 1pt win Salhood 5/1 laid betdaq 5.7

1.50 Market Rasen 1pt win Salhood 5/1 laid betfair 5.9

2.00 Navan Ducthed Ricardo and Text Morgan

2.05 Cheltenahm Don’t push it and Mister Pointment

2.05 Cheltenham 1pt win Mr pointment 7/2 laid betfair 4.0

2.25 Market Rasen Caribou 1 pt lay 1.95 betfair

2.25 Market Rasen 1pt win Carbiou 11/1 laid betfair 1.95

2.25 Market Rasen 3pt win Only Vintage 2/1

2.40 Cheltenham 1pt win Taranis backed 11/2 laid 6.0 before new market

2.50 Southwell 1pt win Senitoro rosso 4/1 laid 4.6 betfair

3.00 Market Rasen Backed Passed me by 5/1 laid 5.6 betfair

3.15 Cheltenham 1pt lay Detriot City 1.72 betfair

3.15 Cheltenahm 1pt win Hardly Eustace 13/8 laid 2.5

5.00 Wolverhampton 1pt win Salute Lad 6/1 laid 6.0

All in all a very profitable day albeit one of the busiest for a long time.  :)

Testing times

December continues to go badly for me.  As is stands with only 6 days gone it is a bad losing month for me.  I am hopeful that things will turn around quickly but this is a test of my faith for sure.   November was disappointing but essentiallly not disatrrous.  December so far is damagaing and traditional it is a very good month for me which is the most disappointing fact.   Then again there is still plenty of time to turn around.

The new betfair upgrade again does not for me.  They maintain my business because of liquidity alone.  Although some of business goes betdaq way as well now.   I have looked at ibetx but there is just no money there in the markets of my choice, plus it is does not work with firefox.

Betdaq versus Betfair

After reading the sports trader blog I decided I would dabble again with the betdaq exchange and see how the liquidity had improved.   So far from a week of monitoring it appears that pre-event betfair matches approx 5 times what betdaq does.  In-running the gap appears to be bigger.   I did manage yesterday though to get my 2 lays matched in-running on betfair and profit from the 0% commission offer.  So for now I will continue my experiment.