Day 4 Gold Cup Day Cheltenham
17/03/2006 by ramps.
So the excitement is coming to a climax with the final day at Cheltenham. Good news is it less than a year to the next festival. I am hoping that you still have some powder left for a tricky days racing. There is no doubt today is a pure "gambler’s" day. Big competetive fields but what a feeling when you can tell you mates you selected a >20/1 winner. Small stakes though please. Remember the flat season will be upon us soon and we make hay while the sun shines.
I have really enjoyed the 3 days so far at Cheltenham. There have been so many high and lows. The highs being Nicanor, Star de Mohason and New Mill. The lows being Straw Bear, the loss of 8 horses so far and the criminals who attacked the bookmaker last night. Yes, it is a colourful world that we live in and I am thank my lucky stars ever day that I have such a comfortable and rewarding life.
Down to business.
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Thursday, 16 March 2006 |
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With
the form of Nivky Henderson at this festival then assuming Afsoun is
fit and well I know there is some debate over that then he is the won
to win this event. The dangers are Turko although the good ground may
mean he won’t run. Detriot City, Kasbah Bliss and Mister Hieght are the
only other real dangers. If the four places stands then I think a
little each way bet is adviseable.
BC’s selections
- Afsoun 1 point each 11/2 if 4 places
- Turko 0.5 point each way 10/1 if 4 places
Towerform
- Afsoun 153
- Detroit City 151
- Mister Height 151
Placepot selections
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Brit Insurance Novices’ Hurdle |
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Thursday, 16 March 2006 |
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Very
much like Denman you either with Black Jack Ketum or not. This is an
easier race by far but at 5/4 this horse is not bomb proof and
represent poor value. It is not a lay though and it is a shame there
are no 4 place bookmakers consessions on this event so we can an extra
place to play a few outsiders with.
BC Selections
- Mister Top Notch 0.25 point each way 33/1
- Back to Bid 0.25 point each way 25/1
- Travino 0.5 point each 8/1
Towerform
- Black Jack Ketchum 164
- Travino 151
Placepot selection
- Black Jack Ketchum
- Travino
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Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup |
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Thursday, 16 March 2006 |
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The
main event and one traditional I have a knack for getting big prices
winners or placed horses in. With no Best Mate or Kicking King this is
definitely an open event. You can find reasons to oppose all the top
contenders. I go through my thoughts on a few of them below.
Beef or Salmon
With 8 Grade 1 wins this could well be the class horse in the race
albeit most wins on softer ground than he will get at Cheltenham. I
just thinking on fast ground and his jumping will fail him again. Not
many horses win at the age 10 and not many win at the third time of
asking. I noticed he has drifted considerably this evening and may well
not even go off as favourite. 5/1 or less then a lay, more likely a
leave alone.
Monkerhostin
The likely favourite come off time. Now if you got a fancy ante post
price then I would be pleased. This horse has done me proud in the past
but I have doubts over stamina, yes I said stamina and I know Kicking
King prove some of us wrong last year but I am won’t be backing this
horse and will be hoping than he can’t handle the past and trip
tomorrow. It wouldn’t be a shock if he did win by the value has gone
for now on thisa raider.
War of Attriction
Was my festival lay last year and he duly got stuffed. Tom Taffe’s
put this up as the biggest threat to Kicking King last year and with
the fast ground in his favour this could well land the ante post
gamble’s. Too much has to be taken on trust so I won’t be backing this
one at 7/1
L’Ami
4th in the betting market at present currently 10/1. This horse
certainly has ticks in all the right boxes. With 4 places available
with both Blue Square and Stan James. I think this is one for a small
each way bet.
Other that I am going to dismiss.
Celestial Gold is on the drift with Pipe’s horses completely out of
form. Since he has not run this season you have to be brave to lay this
one but equally brave to back it. Take the stand got us our each way
money last year but at the age of ten I won’t be placing a bean on him
this year especially with the larger field. One knight is lightly raced
and has embarassed me at Cheltenham before. A front runner which is a
bonus in the Gold Cup (20% strike ratio recently). Again age and form
in my opinion are against him. Ollie Magern stuffed last time out on
Good ground. I like this horse a lot but surely can not bounce back
from that. Sir Rembrandt did me proud a couple of years ago when I
collected 2rd and 3rd with Harbour Pilot but age has taken its toll and
his price does not represent his chance.
Heart or Head
Heart: This I believe is race to watch and enjoy. If you need to bet
then use small stakes. My heart says that Kingscliff will win despite
his last 2 runs. 12/1 sounds a good price but based on those runs
should be much bigger. I will be backing him each way 12/1 though as
trying Kingscliff has a good chance of at least collecting the place
money. Another 2 horses that slip in to heart section are Iris’s Gift
16/1 and Royal Emperor (a stayer) 66/1. Iris’s Gift has now shown yet
that he can jump but we all know on hurdling form he could smash these.
Head: Royal Auclair at 28/1 can win this event and with the fast ground is the first horse to represent any value.
BC’s selections
My real advice would be not to bet in this event but since it is the Gold Cup I will be doing the following.
- Kingscliff 1 point each way 12/1 4 places
- Royal Auclair 0.5 point each way 28/1 4 places
- Iris’s Gift 0.5 point each way 16/1 4 places
- L’Ami 0.5 point each way 10/1 4 places
- Royal Emperor 0.25 point each way 66/1 4 places
Placepot selections
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Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup |
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Friday, 17 March 2006 |
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Harbour
Pilot is a strong favourite in this race but at 11 and the fact he was
only second last time out are against him. This has also been a race
for the English so I much prefer taking a risk on the fitness of Bosham
Mill. The other contender in the right age group is Cobreces. I also
fancy Drombeag but the irish don’t have a great record in this race.
BC’s selections
- Bosham Mill 0.25 point each way 22/1
- Cobreces 0.5 point each way 12/1
- Drombeag 0.5 point win 11/2
Towerform
- Harbour Pilot 140
- Joe Blake 135
- Telemoss 135
Placepot selections
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Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase |
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Friday, 17 March 2006 |
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The
stats are very confusing here as bottom weights have a great record in
this race but there are no horses less tham 10st 4. Pipe horses seem to
be completely out of sorts at Cheltenham this week otherwise I would
give Madison du berlais a very big chance. Tysou and Andreas have the
form but they also have the weight to carry.
If I had to make a bet then my 3 against the field would Tiger Cry 8/1, Kalca Moore 40/1 and Nyrche 22/1
Towerform
- Green Tango 154
- Madison du berlais 154
Placepot selections
- Tiger Cry
- Nyrche
- Kalca More
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Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle |
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Friday, 17 March 2006 |
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The
final race of the festival. An extremely difficult race to find the
winner. The good thing is that it is only 361 days to next years
festival. My 2 against the field are Noble Request, 5 year old, Hobbs
and winner last time out. On ratings I have Pirate Flagship as the best
at 11/1. I would add Acambo to the list albeit for Pipe’s lot being out
of form.
Towerform
- Desert Quest 153
- Acambo 151
- Khetaaam 151
Placepot selections
- Noble Request
- Pirate Flagship
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