I
am writing this again because my session just timed out one of the few
annoying things about Mambo. It is hard to see past the favourite
Denman but if you fancy some value then I believe there is some there
to be had.

Cheltenham Stats

1. All winners since 1982 finished 1st or 2rd last time out
2. 19 of the last 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting
3. 29 of the last 34 winners were aged 5 or 6
4. 5 of the last six winners contested a pattern race last time out
5. No Challow Hurdle winner has won this race
6. Irish trained horses have won 4 of the last 11 runnings

The challow hurdle stat maybe not be as important this year as it
was re-routed to Cheltenham form Newbury but at 11/10 Denman is far too
short for backing for profit. If you did not back Brave Inca yesterday
and our looking for a winner to say you had one then this is the bet
for Day 2.

I prefer Nicanor who gets all 6 ticks and Mr Nosie also gets all 6
ticks. At 15/2 with sporting odds and 10/1 with ukbetting combined with
1/4 odds a place I have backed both each way. I won’t be surprised if
Denman bolts up but I think the prices make it worth the risk. Even if
Denman wins I would hope to get at least one place which would mimise
the lose to the win stakes.

BC’s selections

• Nicanor 0.5 point each way 15/2 sporting odds
• Mr Nosie 0.5 point each way 10/1 ukbetting

Towerform

• Denman 161
• Nicanor 150

Placepot selections

• Denman
• Nicanor
• Mr Nosie

It
looks as if the money is going to continue for Commercial flyer. With
only winning favourite since 1992 combined with the fact that in both
rated systems I have at least 2 horses rated above him I will most
likely be laying this one. Hoping will go as short as 7/2 but happy to
lay at 4/1.

Darkness has most of the stats in his favour and now he is not the
favourite just makes this selection more appealing. 7/1 though may
still be a little short and would want 8/1 or more to get involved.

Another danger to the likely favourite is the Listener who has
plenty going for him apart from the fall last time out. The trends
suggest he won’t bounce back after that. Cheltenham is unforgiving and
if a horse is not 100% confident then he will once again lose valueable
ground at fences and eventually has too much ground to make up.

Our Ben has most things going for him apart from Willie Mullins poor
form in this race and the fact he was only 3rd last time out.

The other contenders all have valuable stats against them. Star de
Mohaison is aged five but some would say he has the strength and
progression to overcome this stats. Bewleys Berry has a lot in his
favour but was only 3rd last time out. I personally think the railway
man at 16/1 represents some value. Ardaghey at a massive 50/1 represent
the real value.

BC’s Selections

• Lay: Commerical Flyer 2 points if fav and less than 9/2

Towerform

• Darkness  165
• The Listener 164

Placepot selections

• Darkness
• The railwayman

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Wednesday, 15 March 2006

You are either a Kauto Star supporter or not. The fact that will stop me backing this one is his age. Six years olds jsut don’t win this race. Now if I am too say the age is a key factor then this also rules out Moscow flyer. On ratings for every system I have available this are the top two end x. Fota Island ratings are not impressive so if I take these on trust I am now opposing the top 3 in the market. Next in the betting market is Central House and 8/1 is worth a shout. All gives a good run and 3rd place would cover the bet nicely. The problem with looking at any other horses is that statistically you are only looking for the place money as 23 out of the last 24 winners have been 9/1 or less. The contenders are Dempsey (2rd last time out) 20/1, Watson Lake 22/1 (4th last time out), Newmill 25/1 (first last time out) or Oneway 50/1 (3rd last time out). The question is will one of the big 3 fail and gives us more than one place to play for. Traditionally this does not happen. BC’s Selections Central House 0.5 point each way 8/1 Possible lay Fota Island Towerform Kauto Star 165 Moscow Flyer 164 Placepot selections Kauto Star Central House Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle Wednesday, 15 March 2006 30 runners so I wish you the best of luck.  Even with 5 places you are going to need it. Towerform Good Thyne Jack 147 Fair Question   147 Placepot selections Fair Question Desert Air Phar Bleu Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Amateurs’ Challenge Cup Handicap Chase Wednesday, 15 March 2006 Another extremly tough race. My incline is to forgive Lou Du Moulin Mas and Liberthine and give them one more chance but the prices are a little restrictive. Mon More offer better value in my opinion. Towerform Underwriter 147 Florida Dream 146 Placepot selections Lou du moulin mas Liberthine Parsons legacy