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Archive for 13/03/2006

Cheltenham Day 1

13/03/2006 by ramps.

The waiting is over and my research is complete.   Day 1 looks difficult and all I will be looking for is a profit.   The towerform and brimardon ratings through up a few surprises to say the least.   I am not sure how closely brimardon follows stats for certain types of races but does not tie in that closely with my manual work.   Towerform was a lot closer although there were still a few surprises.

Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle
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Saturday, 11 March 2006

Sweet
wake gets all the ticks in the rights box but at 5/2 with Noel Maede
poor festival form is too short to back. This means there are
alternatives a nice prices.

BC Tips using the Cheltenham Festival Guide 2006 (Paul Jones)

  • Straw Bear 11/1 Take 4 places each way if you can 0.5 pt ew
  • O Muircheartaigh 10/1 Take 4 places each way if you can 0.5 pt ew

Towerform Top Two

  • Straw Bear 148
  • Sweet Wake 147

Placepots selections:

  • Straw Bear
  • Sweet Wake
  • O Muircheartaigh

Outsiders worth a small punt:

  • Natal 20/1
  • Buena Vista 22/1

Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeplechase
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Saturday, 11 March 2006

This
is a very interesting where the statistics say they one of the horses
in the top five in the betting will win. What makes it is difficult is
there are questions marks over each of the five of them. Do you take
Racing Demon the favourite trusting that the his jumping won’t prevent
him from winning? There are bigs hopes for Missed That and he cost me
dearly in the bumper last year. Very much looking forward to see what
Brimardon and Towerform shown for ratings for this race.

I have now had a look at the ratings from both Towerform and
Brimardon and they agree on my first choice but completely disagree
with my second choice.

BC Selections

  • Don’t be shy 9/1  1 point win
  • Voy Por Ustedes 8/1  1 point win
  • Cerium 33/1          0.5 points each way

I have an instinct that Acordion Etoile will win this in style but the more research I do the more the price does not look good.

Towerform

  • Racing Demon 168
  • Missed That  167
  • Don’t be shy 167

Placepots selections

  • Don’t be shy
  • Voy por ustedes
  • Missed That


Smurfit Champion Hurdle
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Saturday, 11 March 2006

A
race where I can not see beyond the favourite Brave Inca. Hardy Eustace
has not been right this season and would amazing if he could regain his
form against such stiff opposition. Out of the top 5 in the market the
most questions marks for me go against Mac’s Joy and at 4/1 he maybe a
lay for me on the day. The value horses for me are Arcalis and Al Eile.

My shortlist is shown below:-

  • Brave Inca 8 ticks 15/8
  • Hardy Eustace 6 ticks 6/1 (Poor form this season)
  • Arcalis 7 ticks 7/1
  • Macs Joy 3 ticks 4/1
  • Al Eile 6 ticks 10/1

The first race where Brimardon and Towerform disagree considerably.
Towerform is closely matched to my thinking whereas Brimardon certainly
rates some of the english horses better than I could.

BC Selections

I am not sure whether I will get involved in this race or not will
very much depend on how the stats work in the first 2 races. It maybe
one for me to swerve.

  • Al Eile 1 point win 8/1       If chelt guide working out.
  • Intersky Falcon 0.25 ew 66/1  If brimardon horses running well.

One thing is certain I won’t be laying Mac’s Joy now.  I may consider laying Brave Inca is the price gets much shorter.

Placepot selections

  • Brace Inca
  • Intersky Falcon
  • Macs Joy

William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeplechase
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Saturday, 11 March 2006

An
extremely difficult race I think this year. My problem is I think
Korelo has a great chance but Pipe record in this race is a big turn
off.

BC’s selections

  • Korelo 1 point win 8/1
  • Made in Japan 0.25 each way 33/1
  • Model Son 0.5 each way 20/1

Towerform

  • Korelo 153
  • Dun Doire 151
  • No half session 151

Placepot selections

  • Korelo
  • Dun Doire
  • Alderburn

Sporting Index Cross Country Steeplechase
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Saturday, 11 March 2006

Spotthedifference
has caused me pain in the race before but I don’t have the confidence
to oppose. Most likely going to a race to avoid for me.

My short list:-

  • Good Step 2 ticks 4/1
  • Native Jack 1 tick 9/2
  • Spotthediffernce 2 ticks 8/1
  • Never compromise 1 tick 10/1
  • Commanche war paint 2 ticks 10/1

BC’s selections

  • Commanche War Paint 1 point each way 11/1
  • Whereareyouknow 0.25 each way 33/1
  • Mrs Be 0.5 each way 16/1

Towerform

  • Mrs Be 144
  • Tribal Venture 143
  • Native Jack 143

Placepot selections

  • Commanche War Paint
  • Tribal Venture
  • Native Jack

Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Listed) (4-0yo)
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Monday, 13 March 2006

Not a race for me to get involved in.

Placepot selections

  • Royals Darling
  • Bold Fire
  • Alfred the great

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