01/03/2006 by ramps.

With no racing today and a scuessful day at work I have sat down and done my initial analysis for the Anglo Irish Bank Supreme Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.

The favourite currently is Sweet Wake for Noel Maede who had Wild Passion who finished second last year.   Meade form is not good in these races and the horse has no festival or Cheltenham form.   At 3/1 it could conceiveably bolt up but I think it allows us to play each way at bigger prices on some of the less fancied and statistically more likely winners of this race.

The second favourite for this race is Noland at around the 9/1.  Paul Nicholls does not have a great record in this race.  Soft ground would provide Noland with a chance but others are more fancied.

If the ground is likely to be soft then I think Straw Bear represents value at 12/1 each way.  A 5 year old. No cheltenham form but a last time out winner.

OMuircheartaigh is another horse than could win this race.  Connections have the form and record at Cheltenham.  12/1 represents each way value.

Crow Wood has to overcome the stats being a seven year old. So I won’t be backing this one.

Jass Messenger  could represent some each way value at 33/1 if the ground is good but only to small stakes.

Nous Voila if this 5 year old does line up for this race then I believe the 25/1 price could prove to be far too big especially if there is cut in the ground.  Cheltenham form is not good but was a leading fancy for the totesport Trophy at Newbury.  I am seriously considering taking some 25/1 each way value on this charge.

Acambo was interesting that Timmy Murphy had favoured Nous Voila for the totesport Trophy rather than this 5 year old.  Was well beaten by Straw bear as well.   Not for me.

Refinement another seven year old so I would be on this one.

Natal would be good value at 20/1 apart from the fact that Paul Nichols form in these races is not good.

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01/03/2006 by ramps.

With Wetherby and Folkestone abandoned means a day off invetsing for me.   Particularly disappointing as Wetherby I have 52.1% strike ratio and a mind boggling 77.7% strike ratio in Handicap chases.  All part of the game.   I have the football and cricket to enjoy and there maybe some trading angles in that latter but I wair and see for now I keep the powder dry for another day.

Cheltenahm edges ever closer.   The exciting is building.   Hope to publish my analysis on the big races soon now that some bookies are often non runner no bet offers.

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